{"markup":"\u003C?xml version=\u00221.0\u0022 encoding=\u0022UTF-8\u0022 ?\u003E\n    \u003Chtml version=\u0022HTML+RDFa+MathML 1.1\u0022\n    xmlns:content=\u0022http:\/\/purl.org\/rss\/1.0\/modules\/content\/\u0022\n    xmlns:dc=\u0022http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/\u0022\n    xmlns:foaf=\u0022http:\/\/xmlns.com\/foaf\/0.1\/\u0022\n    xmlns:og=\u0022http:\/\/ogp.me\/ns#\u0022\n    xmlns:rdfs=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/01\/rdf-schema#\u0022\n    xmlns:sioc=\u0022http:\/\/rdfs.org\/sioc\/ns#\u0022\n    xmlns:sioct=\u0022http:\/\/rdfs.org\/sioc\/types#\u0022\n    xmlns:skos=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2004\/02\/skos\/core#\u0022\n    xmlns:xsd=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2001\/XMLSchema#\u0022\n    xmlns:mml=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Chead\u003E\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/sites\/default\/files\/js\/js_itu2PgFdrjV-docKmLK8Jn5oXe_05RgvQh73eOhI_mE.js\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/mdc.sagepub.com\/sites\/all\/modules\/highwire\/highwire\/plugins\/highwire_markup_process\/js\/highwire_at_symbol.js?nznbs1\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/mdc.sagepub.com\/sites\/all\/modules\/highwire\/highwire\/plugins\/highwire_markup_process\/js\/highwire_article_reference_popup.js?nznbs1\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/sites\/default\/files\/js\/js_I8yX6RYPZb7AtMcDUA3QKDZqVkvEn35ED11_1i7vVpc.js\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\u003C!--\/\/--\u003E\u003C![CDATA[\/\/\u003E\u003C!--\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i[\u0022GoogleAnalyticsObject\u0022]=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,\u0022script\u0022,\u0022\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js\u0022,\u0022ga\u0022);ga(\u0022create\u0022, \u0022UA-15605596-27\u0022, {\u0022cookieDomain\u0022:\u0022auto\u0022});ga(\u0022set\u0022, \u0022page\u0022, location.pathname + location.search + location.hash);ga(\u0022send\u0022, \u0022pageview\u0022);ga(\u0027create\u0027, \u0027UA-189672-26\u0027, \u0027auto\u0027, {\u0027name\u0027: \u0027hwTracker\u0027});\r\nga(\u0027hwTracker.send\u0027, \u0027pageview\u0027);\n\/\/--\u003E\u003C!]]\u003E\n\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\u003C!--\/\/--\u003E\u003C![CDATA[\/\/\u003E\u003C!--\njQuery.extend(Drupal.settings, {\u0022basePath\u0022:\u0022\\\/\u0022,\u0022pathPrefix\u0022:\u0022\u0022,\u0022highwire\u0022:{\u0022markup\u0022:[{\u0022requested\u0022:\u0022full-text\u0022,\u0022variant\u0022:\u0022full-text\u0022,\u0022view\u0022:\u0022full\u0022,\u0022pisa\u0022:\u0022spmdc;12\\\/11\\\/4\u0022},{\u0022requested\u0022:\u0022long\u0022,\u0022variant\u0022:\u0022full-text\u0022,\u0022view\u0022:\u0022full\u0022,\u0022pisa\u0022:\u0022spmdc;12\\\/11\\\/4\u0022}],\u0022ac\u0022:{\u0022spmdc;12\\\/11\\\/4\u0022:{\u0022access\u0022:{\u0022reprint\u0022:true,\u0022full\u0022:true},\u0022pisa_id\u0022:\u0022spmdc;12\\\/11\\\/4\u0022,\u0022atom_uri\u0022:\u0022\u0022,\u0022jcode\u0022:\u0022spmdc\u0022}}},\u0022googleanalytics\u0022:{\u0022trackOutbound\u0022:1,\u0022trackMailto\u0022:1,\u0022trackDownload\u0022:1,\u0022trackDownloadExtensions\u0022:\u00227z|aac|arc|arj|asf|asx|avi|bin|csv|doc(x|m)?|dot(x|m)?|exe|flv|gif|gz|gzip|hqx|jar|jpe?g|js|mp(2|3|4|e?g)|mov(ie)?|msi|msp|pdf|phps|png|ppt(x|m)?|pot(x|m)?|pps(x|m)?|ppam|sld(x|m)?|thmx|qtm?|ra(m|r)?|sea|sit|tar|tgz|torrent|txt|wav|wma|wmv|wpd|xls(x|m|b)?|xlt(x|m)|xlam|xml|z|zip\u0022,\u0022trackUrlFragments\u0022:1},\u0022ajaxPageState\u0022:{\u0022js\u0022:{\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/libraries\\\/cluetip\\\/jquery.cluetip.js\u0022:1,\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/libraries\\\/cluetip\\\/lib\\\/jquery.hoverIntent.js\u0022:1,\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/libraries\\\/cluetip\\\/lib\\\/jquery.bgiframe.min.js\u0022:1,\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/modules\\\/highwire\\\/highwire\\\/plugins\\\/highwire_markup_process\\\/js\\\/highwire_at_symbol.js\u0022:1,\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/modules\\\/highwire\\\/highwire\\\/plugins\\\/highwire_markup_process\\\/js\\\/highwire_article_reference_popup.js\u0022:1,\u0022sites\\\/all\\\/modules\\\/contrib\\\/google_analytics\\\/googleanalytics.js\u0022:1,\u00220\u0022:1}}});\n\/\/--\u003E\u003C!]]\u003E\n\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Clink type=\u0022text\/css\u0022 rel=\u0022stylesheet\u0022 href=\u0022\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/sites\/default\/files\/advagg_css\/css__ce2QY63WIanKyr8eSq7eavr1XQRRmFD6ZSmwpyJi8lM__zXwFqpqmxrZOXXcd_TpBQpjuELbmIP9wBR5UuTDWAO4__YJWWMMdfCJuAFm5cUEp88OsodhO3ZA-2lzRfoBsSlk4.css\u0022 media=\u0022all\u0022 \/\u003E\n\u003Clink rel=\u0027stylesheet\u0027 type=\u0027text\/css\u0027 href=\u0027\/sites\/all\/modules\/contrib\/panels\/plugins\/layouts\/onecol\/onecol.css\u0027 \/\u003E\u003C\/head\u003E\u003Cbody\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022panels-ajax-tab-panel panels-ajax-tab-panel-sageoa-tab-art\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022panel-display panel-1col clearfix\u0022 \u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022panel-panel panel-col\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022panel-pane pane-highwire-markup\u0022 \u003E\n  \n      \n  \n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022pane-content\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022highwire-markup\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv xmlns=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xhtml\u0022 id=\u0022content-block-markup\u0022 xmlns:xhtml=\u0022http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xhtml\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022article fulltext-view \u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022highwire-journal-article-marker-start\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022section abstract\u0022 id=\u0022abstract-1\u0022\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ESummary\u003C\/h2\u003E\n            \u003Cp id=\u0022p-1\u0022\u003EPandemic diabetes and cardiovascular disease have created an imperative to develop risk-prediction models for early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at risk of developing the disease [Collins GS et al. \u003Cem\u003EBMC Medicine\u003C\/em\u003E 2011]. This article discusses the current status of risk-assessment tools.\u003C\/p\u003E\n         \u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cul class=\u0022kwd-group\u0022\u003E\u003Cli class=\u0022kwd\u0022\u003EDiabetes Mellitus\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli class=\u0022kwd\u0022\u003ECardiometabolic Disorder\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-2\u0022\u003EPandemic diabetes and cardiovascular disease have created an imperative to develop risk-prediction models for early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at risk of developing the disease [Collins GS et al. \u003Cem\u003EBMC Medicine\u003C\/em\u003E 2011]. Nick Wareham, MBBS, PhD, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, United Kingdom, discussed the current status of risk-assessment tools.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-3\u0022\u003EA diabetes risk score is a prognostic model [Moons KG et al. \u003Cem\u003EBMJ\u003C\/em\u003E 2009] that has public health and clinical implications. On the public health level, using a risk score to rank individuals can help target therapy at those at greatest risk and identify those who need more definitive testing. Clinically, risk scores can be used to estimate the likely absolute benefit from intervention and motivate behavior change.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-4\u0022\u003EAccording to Prof. Wareham, risk-prediction models vary in cumulative complexity from already-available information and add-in data from self-completed or assisted questionnaires to clinical measures (including biomarkers) and genetic findings.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-5\u0022\u003EA good risk score is usually defined as one that 1) accurately estimates an individual\u0027s risk, ie, predictions are based on a score that closely matches what is observed (calibration), 2) reliably distinguishes between high-risk people who will likely develop the condition and those at low risk who are less likely to do so (discrimination), and 3) performs well in new populations (generalizability) [Noble D et al. \u003Cem\u003EBMJ\u003C\/em\u003E 2011].\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-6\u0022\u003EGriffin et al. [\u003Cem\u003EDiabetes Metab Res Rev\u003C\/em\u003E 2000] found that a simple score, using only data routinely collected in general practice, can help identify those at risk of diabetes. Rahman et al. [\u003Cem\u003EFam Pract\u003C\/em\u003E 2008] demonstrated that a risk score comprised of only commonly collected nonbiochemical parameters could effectively identify those at risk of type 2 diabetes. Similarly, simple questions about leisure time and work-related physical activity that can be rapidly obtained by any physician at no cost can help estimate a patient\u0027s risk of coronary heart disease (\u003Ca id=\u0022xref-fig-1-1\u0022 class=\u0022xref-fig\u0022 href=\u0022#F1\u0022\u003EFigure 1\u003C\/a\u003E) [Arsenault BJ et al. \u003Cem\u003EAtherosclerosis\u003C\/em\u003E 2010].\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv id=\u0022F1\u0022 class=\u0022fig pos-float  odd\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022highwire-figure\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022fig-inline-img-wrapper\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022fig-inline-img\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/content\/spmdc\/12\/11\/4\/F1.large.jpg?width=800\u0026amp;height=600\u0026amp;carousel=1\u0022 title=\u0022Relationship Between Activity Levels and Risk of All-Cause Mortality or Cardiovascular Event.\u0022 class=\u0022fragment-images colorbox-load\u0022 rel=\u0022gallery-fragment-images-1279174136\u0022 data-figure-caption=\u0022Relationship Between Activity Levels and Risk of All-Cause Mortality or Cardiovascular Event.\u0022 data-icon-position=\u0022\u0022 data-hide-link-title=\u00220\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg class=\u0022fragment-image\u0022 alt=\u0022Figure 1.\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/content\/spmdc\/12\/11\/4\/F1.medium.gif\u0022\/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cul class=\u0022highwire-figure-links inline\u0022\u003E\u003Cli class=\u00220 first\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/content\/spmdc\/12\/11\/4\/F1.large.jpg?download=true\u0022 class=\u0022highwire-figure-link highwire-figure-link-download\u0022 title=\u0022Download Figure 1.\u0022 data-icon-position=\u0022\u0022 data-hide-link-title=\u00220\u0022\u003EDownload figure\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli class=\u00221\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/d282kpwvnogo5m.cloudfront.net\/content\/spmdc\/12\/11\/4\/F1.large.jpg\u0022 class=\u0022highwire-figure-link highwire-figure-link-newtab\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 data-icon-position=\u0022\u0022 data-hide-link-title=\u00220\u0022\u003EOpen in new tab\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli class=\u00222 last\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022\/highwire\/powerpoint\/14191\u0022 class=\u0022highwire-figure-link highwire-figure-link-ppt\u0022 data-icon-position=\u0022\u0022 data-hide-link-title=\u00220\u0022\u003EDownload powerpoint\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022fig-caption attrib\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022fig-label\u0022\u003EFigure 1.\u003C\/span\u003E \n            \u003Cp id=\u0022p-7\u0022 class=\u0022first-child\u0022\u003ERelationship Between Activity Levels and Risk of All-Cause Mortality or Cardiovascular Event.\u003C\/p\u003E\n         \u003Cq class=\u0022attrib\u0022 id=\u0022attrib-1\u0022\u003EReprinted from Khaw KT et al. Work and leisure time physical activity assessed using a simple, pragmatic, validated questionnaire and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in men and women: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk prospective population study. \u003Cem\u003EInt J Epidemiol\u003C\/em\u003E. 2006;35(4):1034\u201343, by permission of Oxford University Press.\u003C\/q\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022sb-div caption-clear\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-8\u0022\u003ESalomaa et al. [\u003Cem\u003EPLoS One\u003C\/em\u003E 2010] demonstrated that after taking obesity and other classic risk factors into account, several novel biomarkers (eg, adiponectin, apolipoprotein B, C-reactive protein, and ferritin) improve clinical prediction of type 2 diabetes. Recently, Forouhi et al. [\u003Cem\u003EDiabetologia\u003C\/em\u003E 2012] found an inverse association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and incident type 2 diabetes; and Pfister et al. [\u003Cem\u003EPLoS Med\u003C\/em\u003E 2011] reported evidence of a causal relationship between the B-type natriuretic peptide system and the etiology of type 2 diabetes.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-9\u0022\u003ERecent genome-wide association studies have identified many loci in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology and \u03b2-cell dysfunction [Manning AK et al. \u003Cem\u003ENat Genet\u003C\/em\u003E 2012]. Voight et al. [\u003Cem\u003ENat Genet\u003C\/em\u003E 2010] found 12 type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci identified through largescale association analysis, while Manning et al. [\u003Cem\u003ENat Genet\u003C\/em\u003E 2012] discovered 6 previously unknown loci related to fasting insulin at p\u0026lt;5\u00d710(\u20138). Risk variants were associated with higher triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels, suggesting a role for these loci in insulin-resistance pathways.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-10\u0022\u003EThe best approach for predicting incident type 2 diabetes depends how the information will be used, ie, for public health or clinical purposes. According to Prof. Wareham, routine data score is the most effective means of predicting performance from a population perspective. Clinically, he concluded that making patients aware of their risk can encourage them to take action to reduce it. In addition, a numerical presentation of risk instead of simple risk categories leads to more accurate risk perception and can influence treatment decisions. The relative risk-reduction format is the best way to encourage patients to accept treatment, while the number-needed-to-treat format is the least effective way to encourage acceptance of treatment.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp id=\u0022p-11\u0022\u003EHe advised clinicians to ensure that their choice of instrument has been tested in the population in which it is to be used and to be aware of different methods of transmitting risk information to patients and their impact on patients.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cul class=\u0022copyright-statement\u0022\u003E\u003Cli class=\u0022fn\u0022 id=\u0022copyright-statement-1\u0022\u003E\u00a9 2012 MD Conference Express\u00ae\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022highwire-journal-article-marker-end\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan id=\u0022related-urls\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/mdc.sagepub.com\/content\/12\/11\/4.abstract\u0022 class=\u0022hw-link hw-link-article-abstract\u0022 data-icon-position=\u0022\u0022 data-hide-link-title=\u00220\u0022\u003EView Summary\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n  \n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/mdc.sagepub.com\/sites\/all\/modules\/highwire\/highwire\/plugins\/highwire_markup_process\/js\/highwire_figures.js?nznbs1\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022 src=\u0022http:\/\/mdc.sagepub.com\/sites\/all\/modules\/highwire\/highwire\/plugins\/highwire_markup_process\/js\/highwire_openurl.js?nznbs1\u0022\u003E\u003C\/script\u003E\n\u003C\/body\u003E\u003C\/html\u003E"}